CEH Report

Table of Contents

Abstract

Ketene and diketene are important industrial intermediates generally used at their production sites. Acetic anhydride production (the majority of which is used for cellulose acetate flake manufacture) will continue to drive ketene consumption. In the United States, ketene consumption is expected to only slightly increase, as domestic production and consumption of cellulose acetate has limited growth. Ketene use for diketene derivatives will have moderate to limited growth and sorbic acid use will grow, although from a small volume base.

With the exception of China, global ketene demand has declined in recent years. There has been a continued shift of regional production and consumption of ketene from the major markets in the United States and Western Europe to Asia, particularly China. Acetic anhydride (for cellulose acetate flake) capacity has continued to increase in China, driving domestic ketene demand while reducing acetic anhydride imports from other regions such as the United States and Western Europe. This trend is expected to continue over the next few years as China experiences high annual growth rates for ketene consumption while the United States has limited growth, Western Europe has no growth and Japan's market continues its decline.

India will continue to produce ketene and diketenes. Mexico will also continue its ketene production; however, consumption is expected to remain flat or only slightly grow. In other regions of the world such as Canada, Central and South America, and Central and Eastern Europe, ketene use is minimal and is expected to remain so. The Middle East may have some future growth but to what degree remains uncertain.

The following pie chart shows consumption of ketene/diketene by major region:

Overall, it is expected that global ketene consumption will grow 2–3% annually during 2009–2014. The main driver of this growth will be China, with additional acetic anhydride and sorbic acid production. The remainder of the major ketene-producing regions will have very limited growth or no growth at all (and possible decline). Other global ketene uses, including diketene and its resulting derivatives, will continue to grow modestly.