CEH Report

Table of Contents

Abstract

This report provides an assessment of the supply/demand situation for butylenes in 2010 and market projections for 2015. The focus of the study is the worldwide butylenes market, to evaluate the entire world supply of butylenes and the consumption of butylenes for production of chemicals and gasoline blending components, where data are available.

Butylenes are four-carbon mono-olefins that find uses in fuel and chemical applications. Fuel markets account for about 85–90% of the world production of butylenes. The major fuel application is in the manufacture of gasoline blending components, such as gasoline alkylate, polymer gasoline and dimersol. Isobutylene serves as a raw material for the oxygenates, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE), as well as for iso-octane. Butylenes may also be blended directly into gasoline for volatility control. They are also marketed with propane and butanes as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

At about 10–15% of the total worldwide market for butylenes, the size of the chemical market pales in comparison to that of the fuel market. n-Butenes are used as the precursor for sec-butyl alcohol, butadiene, butene-1 and other smaller applications. In industrialized regions—the United States, Western Europe and Japan—the chemical market for n-butenes is flat to declining. In developing regions such as Asia and Latin America, demand for butene-1 as a polyethylene comonomer and sec-butyl alcohol for MEK will gradually increase. Environmental regulations have slowed the growth of chemical markets for isobutylene in the United States and Japan with the cessation of MTBE use in reformulated gasoline. Other isobutylene derivatives such as butyl rubber and polybutenes represent mature markets in these regions and will experience only small growth. Stronger isobutylene demand in Other Asia, Central and South America, and Central and Eastern Europe is forecast through 2015.

The following pie chart shows world consumption of butylenes:

During 2010–2015, no significant deviations from the current conditions are expected to occur in the amount of butylenes generated from each process, with the exception of lower volumes recovered from steam crackers as a result of feedstock shifts in ethylene production. Quantities of MTBE will continue to be converted back into butylenes for chemical applications or ETBE in Europe. In the United States, overall butylenes supply will grow only slightly, with refineries and steam crackers providing the bulk of supply and on-purpose production playing a greater role during the forecast period.

Western European and Japanese markets, where steam cracking provides a significant portion of the butylenes supply, are expected to exhibit slower growth rates. Other Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East will experience somewhat higher growth rates.